Global shipping has always been exposed to sudden shocks - from financial crises and pandemics to blocked sea routes. Each time, we see a familiar pattern: disruption, rising prices, operational adjustments, and eventually a return to normal.
In 2025, the cycle is repeating itself. Capacity is increasing, new ships are entering service, and spot rates on key trade lanes are falling again. The question for shippers: how can we prepare for the next turn in the cycle?
What Makes the Current Situation Different
Capacity growth outpaces demand. Record newbuild deliveries in 2024/25 are putting downward pressure on rates, even though vessels are rerouting around Africa and sailing times are longer.
Demand is unstable, not weak. Tariffs, exemptions and political uncertainties trigger swings – from accelerated imports to sudden slowdowns. The latest customs regulations and economic uncertainty are amplifying this volatility.
Regulation brings extra costs. With the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) and IMO's EEXI and CII measures, shipping faces higher costs and slower speeds. Companies that fail to account for ETS surcharges risk unpleasant surprises.
Impact on Shippers
Volatility means that market conditions can shift within weeks. Spot rates may fall quickly, but operational challenges such as delays, detours, and blank sailings often remain.
Shippers that manage this best are those that:
Use flexible contracts with clear limits and adjustment clauses
Design supply chains with redundancy and alternative routes
Enter into long-term strategic partnerships with forwarders and carriers - for example, with Leschaco as a trusted logistics partner who helps navigate volatility and ensures transparency, flexibility, and reliability
Establish clear governance for environmental cost pass-through (e.g. ETS and bunker surcharges)
Choosing the right transport models also plays a role:
FCL (full container load) provides efficiency in stable markets but can become costly during volatile periods
LCL (less than container load) offers flexibility when demand fluctuates, though it requires careful cost and transit time management
Advanced concepts like LLP and 4PL (Lead Logistics Provider & Fourth Party Logistics) can further enhance transparency and control across the supply chain
With the right mix of contract strategy, transport model, and strong partnerships, shippers can turn market volatility into a competitive advantage.
The Bottom Line
Crises will continue to shape global logistics - whether through geopolitical turbulence, regulatory change, or shifting demand. The companies that succeed are not those trying to avoid volatility, but those that turn it into a competitive advantage.
The key:
Anticipate cycles instead of just reacting to them
Rely on data-driven decision-making in procurement and routing
Combine cost control with service reliability
In an industry where the only constant is change, structured flexibility is no longer optional - it’s the foundation for long-term success.
